Deal Me In?

Once again I have a friend trying to talk me into playing poker. So far I have managed to side-step the trendy phase of its resurgence, despite several folks making every effort to let me know what I am missing out on. For some reason people think that I would enjoy taking up the game. They know that I have an interest in psychology, and emphasize the importance of that facet of poker. I expect that these would-be enablers have only the best intentions at heart. Certainly they aren't just trying to recruit fresh meat for the table, right? It's merely an opportunity for me to exercise a specific part of my personality, and a localized region of my brain. Somehow I would be ensured of fun and amusement.

For every compelling reason I am given for participating, I can almost instantly generate a handful of objections. The most generalized excuse I have for foregoing engagement is philosophically-based. When I was a boy, I learned quickly that gambling was a black hole. A couple of my buddies conspired with me to start a football betting pool in middle school. We decided that we could capitalize on our classmates' prurient tendencies, and make a buck or two for soda and comics. The first week we had a lot of participants. It seemed odd that one of our accomplices had so much foresight into what would happen on the gridiron. It was even stranger that one of us came out on top seven days later. What prognostication skills my small social circle had!

You see, we had figured out that the best role to play was the "house". Unfortunately we got greedy too quickly, because if we had more moderation we would have probably been taken care of for months. Anyway, I made a decision after the others started to suspect a fix- I wasn't going to be the sucker. This naturally jigsawed with another objection I had to another honored American past-time... playing cards. As the youngest member of my family I didn't have a chance of success when the deck came out. It was frustrating that the only way I could do well was when someone started patronizing me. I spent a lot of time sitting out, and rolling Yahtzee by myself. It's not like I didn't understand the odds.

As I got older it was easy to avoid gambling because neither my friends nor I ever had any money to throw around. It wasn't an option. Any discretionary income went to beer and cigarettes. The high stake gambles had more to do with whoever you were trying to get into bed. Still I occasionally felt the pull to go to the track. There was something about the horses that tempted me. Perhaps it was something sociological... I was captivated by the milieu. And I felt like I could come out even by simply betting the minimum to show. I could suck up the atmosphere without getting caught in the loop. And for years, there was no pressure to involve myself in any other games of chance.

Now we have high stakes poker on television. You have to make it a point to remain untouched by the craze. If you decide not to get in on it, you risk giving something up socially. I understand that. My grandfather always warned me that a day would come when I would regret not learning how to play cards. I thought he was daft, but he was really quite prescient. Maybe I'll succumb to the gentle urgings of my pals. But I'd be starting at a distinct advantage, and at the mercy of the early adopters. That's something I'd have a hard time dealing with for awhile. There's an ugly side of me that finds losing completely unacceptable under any conditions. Who wants to encourage that?

Going Out of Business 2008-Style.

Wickes Furniture. Levitz. Sharper Image. KB Toys. Skybus. CompUSA. Select outlets in chains such as Eddie Bauer, Ann Taylor, Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Gap, Foot Locker, Zales, Sprint Nextel, Wilsons Leather,Pacific Sunwear, and Home Depot. General Motors (??) The last time I Googled "going out of business sale 2008" and limited my search to the previous month, I got 1,960,000 hits. Rumors of a coming recession from three years ago have morphed into concerns about a full-on, 30's-style Depression. Besides the fact that malls nationwide are going to get increasingly desolate, the amount of jobs cut is likely to be staggering. Perhaps Walmart will take up the slack, but somehow I doubt it.

In a society with members increasingly defined by consumer "lifestyle", there are going to be a lot of lost individuals stumbling about in the coming years. It might be a good time to look for identification elsewhere. When the shit hits the fan, it's not going to matter what brand of handbag you are carrying. Forget airplane travel... if you can afford to fill your tank, you will be deemed a success- especially if you still have a job to commute to. It's time to re-establish your relationships to the simpler pleasures in life. Take your kids to the park and the library. Have a good ol' fashioned backyard barbecue. Learn to enjoy gardening. Dig a well on the periphery of your property. Install solar panels. Buy a gun and learn to use it.

Things just may get nasty this time around. People have grown up expecting material prosperity. Very few folks planned on doing worse than their parents. Our youth have been force-fed on the myths of perpetual financial growth and the promise of unfettered Capitalism. But what happens when the bulk of the population figures out that it is really a zero sum game? I hope there are some natural barriers between your neighborhood and the poorer ones. Because a significant proportion of the population is going to be severely under-prepared for the coming hardships. And they are going to be desperate, and driven by a sense that they have nothing to lose. The concept of ill-gotten goods may disappear.

Some pundits will tell you to buy gold. They will point out that the US dollar is not officially backed up by anything. For the most part this is true. The perception of value is the only thing that underscores our currency. The truth is that cheap energy (in the form of oil) has bolstered our economy for years. Foreign nations have had to keep a reserve of US dollars in order to buy oil. Now several oil-producing countries are starting to accept other currencies. Sometime during the Bush Administration the US lost its superpower status. If that weren't the case, nobody would be suggesting you invest your wealth in precious metals. What's going unsaid is that gold lacks inherent value as well. There's no reason that people should agree to consider the substance precious- besides tradition.

Food. Clean Water. Fuel. Shelter. Guns. These things will retain their value no matter what happens in the world. But perhaps we won't get to that point. Maybe this whole thing is overblown. The federal government might just tighten up and maintain basic order. However the basic assumptions within our society will inevitably have to change. For those unstinting proponents of the "free market", there's a lot of frustration coming down the pike. How long do you really expect "socialism" to be considered an evil monster by a growing underclass? Without the promise of infinite wealth, collectivism looks increasingly attractive to frustrated citizens. Taxing the rich may not remain so unpopular in the near future. We may see a "Newer Deal" within our lifetimes. Or maybe we'll cease to exist as a coherent society.